CAMRA Overview

Microbial risks and the spread of infectious diseases have re-emerged as some of the greatest concerns for our country’s safety and security. Pathogenic viruses, parasites and bacteria continue to threaten our air, water, soil, food and indoor environments. The ability to measure and identify these microbial hazards as well as understand their ability to survive and spread in the environment are the scientific goals for CAMRA.

CAMRA (the Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment) is an independent research center established by the United States Department of Homeland Security and the Environmental Protection Agency, dedicated to advancing laboratory techniques, creating mathematical tools, and developing datasets needed to improve Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA), a science-based framework for addressing disease in our communities from intentional or accidental releases of hazardous biological agents into our indoor and outdoor environments. Summarizing the threats from multiple microorganisms with diverse biologies in varied scenarios into a comparable estimate – risk – is a valuable product of a QMRA that can help identify the greatest microbial dangers and set priorities for dealing with biological agents of concern (BAC). QMRA risk estimates are beneficial across many disciplines and used by groups such as public health specialists, emergency managers, first responders, regulators, legislators, and engineers employed to assess and control risk.

QMRA requires us to look quantitatively at every step of a microbial exposure pathway, from the first release of a pathogen to the actual human infection. Additionally, information must be gathered on how each microorganism moves through the environment, their survival rates on various media, and how people are exposed to the microorganism (i.e. skin contact, inhalation, or ingestion). These measurements give us a comprehensive view of how environmental contamination (deliberate or accidental) can lead to human infection and reveals key points where interventions can be employed to save lives. Since QMRA allows us to incorporate interventions into risk estimates, we can use QMRA as a tool to measure the impact of interventions and identify the best policies and practices to protect public health and safety.

CAMRA’s research is divided into five projects, each specializing in different stages of the QMRA process.

Project I. Exposure: Detection, Fate and Transport of Biological Agents of Concern (BAC)

Project II. Infectious Disease Models for Assessing Microbial Risks for Developing Control Strategies

Project III. Dose-response Modeling and Applications

Project IV. Assessment-Analysis Interface for QMRA

Project V. Knowledge Management, Learning and Discovery for the QMRA Community

In three years, CAMRA has:

Developed a new infectious disease transmission paradigm. This goes beyond simple human-human transmission to include environment-human and human-environment-human transmission pathways. Including microbial and environmental interactions into risk estimates alters predictions describing the movement or spread of disease within a population and adds a vital level of realism needed for assessing risks associated with deliberate bioterror attacks or contamination events.
Developed dose-response models for all Class A Bioterror Agents. These models allow us to estimate the number of microbes that constitutes a real risk. Some pathogens are deadly at doses as low as 1 organism, while others are dangerous only at higher dose levels. Knowing the difference is literally a matter of life and death.
Measured key information about pathogen transmission and survival via the indoor environment. From measuring the survival rates of microbes on surfaces like metal, plastic, and tile to modelling the way particles disperse through the air and settle after an aerosol release, we are filling data gaps critical to quantifying hazardous microorganism exposures.
Developed new models of pathogen dilution and mixing in water distribution systems. This allows better prediction of exposure through water and identifies key locations for preventing or detecting contamination in drinking water systems.
Quantified the limits of techniques for detecting microbes. When sampling microorganisms from air, water, soil, and surfaces, no technique is perfect. Factors such as recovery rates (how many of the microbes you actually collect) and detection limits (how small a number you can actually measure) add uncertainty to measurements, which in turn adds uncertainty to your risk assessment. Understanding recovery and detection methods can affect our confidence in a risk assessment, and explain that a risk may still exist, even when tests results are negative.
Gathered numerous QMRA data sets in a central location. Some of the measurements needed for QMRA have already been made, but finding existing data is often the most difficult step in a risk assessment. CAMRA researchers are collecting key data sets and preparing to post them in the CAMRA Data Warehouse (coming this Spring), a free, online repository of QMRA data for anyone practicing risk assessment.

For more details, see the CAMRA Annual Reports for Year 1, Year 2, and Year 3.

Current Work

Project I – Exposure: Detection, Fate and Transport of Agents

Gerba Lab, University of Arizona
The Gerba Lab coordinates Project I, and will be measuring the survival of microbes on skin, and the transfer of microbes between skin and surfaces. Both these quantities are vital to modeling disease transmission in the indoor environment.

Choi Lab, University of Arizona
The Choi Lab, located at U of AZ’s Water Village, is releasing microbes into a model water distribution system to study microbial transport. They will compare microbial transport predictions from the innovative computer models they created in Years 1-3 with the results of these release experiments.

Wagner Lab, Northern Arizona University
The Wagner Lab is one of CAMRA’s two BSL3 (Biosafety level 3) laboratories, where BAC can be studied directly. Here, surrogates (harmless microbes that resemble BAC) are evaluated and their survival rates on surfaces, in soil, and in water are compared to those of the pathogenic microorganism they resemble. Surrogates that pass these tests can be used to study BAC scenarios without creating a risk to human health.

Hashsham Lab, Michigan State University
The Hashsham Lab specializes in studying the recovery and detection of BAC. They will be sequencing DNA taken from frequently and infrequently touched surfaces in a University dormitory to test Project II’s model of influenza transmission via surfaces and air. They will also be testing methods to measure anthrax on surfaces using the surrogate Bacillus thuringiensis.

Nicas Lab, University of California, Berkeley
The Nicas Lab specializes in aerosol studies. They are testing mathematical models of particle movement within a room, using data from an experiment conducted in Year 3. They are also measuring the amount of particles from a cough that can reach vulnerable areas of the face (membranes such as the eyes, nasal passages, and mouth).

Project II – Infectious Disease Models for Assessing Microbial Risks and Developing Control Strategies

Eisenberg and Koopman Labs, University of Michigan
The Eisenberg and Koopman Labs are incorporating new data from Project I and Project III into their computer models of infectious disease transmission in the indoor environment. These models combine human movement patterns and environmental contamination levels to see how infections travel in a single venue, multiple venues, and in regional models. They are also collecting data on influenza and norovirus outbreaks to test the predictions of their models.

Project III – Dose-Response Modeling and Application

Haas Lab, Drexel University
The Haas Lab is in charge of creating mathematical dose-response relationships for BAC using existing data and data from CAMRA experiments. They have completed dose-response models for the Category A Biothreat Agents, and are now working on Category B and C Agents, and USDA Select Agents. They are also exploring the effect of multiple doses and timing of doses on microbial risks.

Bolin Lab, Michigan State University
CAMRA’s second BSL3 lab, the Bolin Lab performs animal studies to obtain dose-response data for BAC when datasets are not available from the scientific literature. They are currently conducting experiments to provide multiple dose and time-to-dose response data.

Project IV – The Assessment-Analysis Interface for QMRA

Gurian Lab, Drexel University
The Gurian lab explores innovative ways to apply QMRA concepts to risk management and decision-making. They are currently using Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis to identify general trends in interspecies survival and dose-response data, developing risk analysis scenarios for Tularemia and pandemic influenza, and factoring risk into cost-benefit analysis for decision models.

Casman Lab, Carnegie Mellon University
The Casman Lab is creating a methodology for evaluating the public’s beliefs about microbial threats and identifying potentially dangerous misconceptions. This methodology is being tested with regards to beliefs about influenza by taking concepts from semi-structured interviews and developing a national survey to identify the frequency of these beliefs in the general population.

Project V – Knowledge Management, Transfer, and Learning for the QMRA Community

Weber Lab, Drexel University
The Weber Lab is finalizing the second version of CAMRA’s knowledge repository, an online data storage and knowledge sharing system that facilitates collaboration between CAMRA researchers and highlights connections between projects. They are also building the core software for the CAMRA Data Warehouse, which will contain the assembled QMRA data from five years of CAMRA research and allow future users to add to it, forming a persistent and growing QMRA resource.

Rose Lab, Michigan State University
The Rose lab is in charge of QMRA Education, prepares QMRA workshops for conferences, and hosts the 1-Week QMRA Summer Institute at Michigan State University. They also use data and tools developed by all CAMRA projects and will be completing risk assessments for fomites and key pathogens including the norovirus and Salmonella. They are currently focusing on beach safety after a sewage spill and waterborne disease after a flood, as well as compiling key QMRA data sets for the CAMRA Data Warehouse.

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